World leaders love to parade in front of cameras and announce “historic” deals . I’m expecting several of them to come away from Cop26 saying how much they’ve sacrificed for the good of humanity, but the truth is that few of the deals and promises will amount to anything.
It makes great newspaper headlines to announce for example that the major powers have done a deal to ensure a global agreement to tax corporations at a minimum level. This is a welcome response to the fact that global corporations now habitually and deliberately route profits through low-tax countries so they can avoid paying tax. But although the deal is expected to be approved by the G20, which make up around 80% of the world’s GDP, that leaves 20% not party to the deal. And it only needs one country to hold out and there’s the loophole for corporations to stampeded with their tax paperwork to that country. You can see why the G20 wanted this deal: these global tax avoiders can boost revenues once they pay the appropriate amount of tax.
Then take Cop26. The UN climate change report recently noted that a 45% cut in emissions was needed by 2030, but the major players including China and Russia are loathe to damage their economy in the short term in order to benefit the world in the long term. Targets which say emissions will be at net zero by 2050 are meaningless, and most commentators are sceptical that even commitments for targets by 2030 are achievable. In the UK, the Climate Change Committee recently reported that in their opinion, the UK is only on course to hit a fifth of the reductions they’ve committed to because the policies just aren’t in place. That doesn’t stop Boris delivering a lecture to the effect of “if we don’t act now, it will be too late”. We can’t even agree with France over fishing, so what chance have we got to agree with the whole world on this crucial matter.
The key factor at stake is that Governments do what they need to do to hang on to power, and the measures needed to hit the targets are going to need some radical changes of funding priority, forcing consumers and citizens to change their behaviour in ways that just aren’t going to be popular. And popularity hits cause Governments to lose elections. It feels like we’re still at the generalisation stage: if you conducted a poll, I’m convinced a majority would say climate change has to be dealt with, but once you get to specifics about banning high-polluting activities, slapping surcharges on industry and putting up process, wanting to set up wind and solar farms within sight of people’s homes, you start running into opposition to the plans.
I’m not optimistic, I’ll be honest. Even if the will is there and the realisation finally hitting home in the minds of our leaders, their capacity for organising what needs to be done is not – judging from their performance in the last 18 months dealing with Covid. And that’s just the UK. Will Russia give up it’s huge revenues from oil to go green? Will China cut back its economic output by burning less coal?
In 2050, if I survive that long, I’ll be 90, and I’d love to see the news headlines praising this era’s leaders for their foresight and determination to reverse the impact of climate change. As things stand today I doubt that’ll be the case, but I’d love to be proven wrong.